Abidjan, July 29th 2025 – Less than three months before the presidential election, President Alassane Ouattara reignited the national debate with a bombshell announcement: his candidacy for a fourth term. While his supporters cheer, this move raises serious questions and stirs memories from a nation still recovering from past electoral crises. Here’s a deep dive into the situation shaping Côte d’Ivoire’s tense political horizon.
Constitutional Fog
The 2016 Constitution allows for two presidential terms. Ouattara argues that the new framework “reset the counter,” meaning his current term (2020–2025) is technically his first under this charter. Supporters agree; critics see it as a legal sleight of hand. The Constitutional Council must decide, but in a climate of institutional mistrust, any ruling may be viewed as biased.
Shrinking Freedoms?
A peaceful protest planned by the civic group “Trop c’est trop!” was banned. The official reason: “insufficient security resources.” Many see this as a red flag — a sign that democratic space in Côte d’Ivoire is tightening.
An Opposition Weakened… Yet Watchful
Veteran politicians like Laurent Gbagbo and Guillaume Soro have resurfaced, but their exclusion from the electoral registry suggests a closed playing field. This raises fears of a race without genuine competitors — a democracy in name only.
Tensions That Could Ignite
The trauma of the 2010–2011 post-election crisis, which left over 3,000 dead, still lingers. Today, the same fault lines remain visible:
- Ethno-political divisions
- Exclusion of major challengers
- Social frustration and youth disenchantment
- A restless urban population with access to social media and protest networks
A Two-Speed Economy
Yes, the Ivorian economy is growing — cocoa exports, infrastructure projects, and foreign investments are up. But inequality has widened. An elite cluster reaps the gains, while youth face high unemployment. Discontent is brewing in informal settlements and campuses.
October Scenarios: Calm or Crisis?
| Path | What It Looks Like | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| ✅ RHDP Victory | Ouattara runs, opposition splinters, wins comfortably | Moderate |
| ⚠️ Political Crisis | Mass protests, government crackdown, legitimacy disputes | High |
| 🔥 Targeted Unrest | Clashes in hotspots, political strongholds erupt | Moderate |
| 🕊️ Peaceful Transition | Ouattara steps back, RHDP backs a successor, consensus builds | Low |
What’s at Stake?
Ouattara’s candidacy isn’t just a legal issue — it’s a test of Côte d’Ivoire’s democratic maturity. Will the nation choose stability, inclusivity, and dialogue? Or will it slide into confrontation?
Political leaders have a duty: de-escalate, listen, and lead responsibly. Citizens must remain vigilant, and the press — including platforms like Metro.ci — must keep the spotlight on truth and transparency.
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