Abidjan, August 2025 — President Alassane Ouattara has formally declared his candidacy for a controversial fourth term, scheduled for the 25 October 2025 election. The decision follows a constitutional revision in 2016 that effectively reset his presidential term count, permitting further re‑election beyond the original two‑term limit (Financial Times).
Why Ouattara Believes He Must Stay
At 83 years old, Ouattara argues that Côte d’Ivoire faces “unprecedented security, economic and monetary challenges”, especially around cocoa-sector climate pressures and regional instability. In his address, he stated that both the constitution and his health allow him to serve again. He also acknowledged breaking a prior promise to step down, declaring: “Duty sometimes transcends a promise made in good faith” (Reuters).
The Opposition Excluded?
Major opposition figures—including Tidjane Thiam, Laurent Gbagbo, and Guillaume Soro—have been disqualified from the election on various legal grounds.
- Tidjane Thiam, the internationally recognised former banker, was nominated by the PDCI. He renounced his French nationality in 2025, but was struck off the electoral roll due to having held French citizenship in 1987, which the Constitutional Council ruled disqualifying. Thiam’s challenge to the court’s decision continues (theafricareport.com).
- Laurent Gbagbo, former president and leader of the PPA‑CI, was excluded over a criminal conviction. Despite calls from his party asking for reinstatement and expressing readiness to run again, the courts refused to allow his candidacy (Africanews).
- Guillaume Soro, ex‑prime minister and rebel leader, was also disqualified due to conviction in absentia. Though rumours of his return persist, legal barriers remain firm.
Political Strategy vs Democratic Process
With key opponents sidelined, Ouattara’s political base, the RHDP, has moved swiftly to endorse his candidacy. Observers note that this weakening of credible challengers effectively clears his path to re‑election (Africanews).
Critics argue this reflects a broader trend in the region where incumbents remove term limits and erode electoral competition—seen in nations such as Togo, Cameroon, and the Central African Republic (AP News).
Could Gbagbo, Soro or Thiam Stop Ouattara?
Short answer: unlikely, at least via electoral means.
- None are on the ballot: Thiam, Gbagbo, and Soro are barred from running. They remain influential voices but cannot contest in the election (Wikipédia).
- Legal and civil pressure: They can continue to challenge disqualifications, mobilise civil society, and galvanise protests. Thiam has characterised Ouattara’s bid as an “assault” on democracy. Gbagbo’s party has denounced arrests of its members and called for reinstatement of barred leaders (aljazeera.com).
- Political unity: The PDCI and PPA‑CI have sought joint legal and political action to demand fair competition and reintegration of their leaders. However, divisions within the ruling party and uncertainty over Soro’s return weaken this effort (Africanews, Financial Times).
Risks and Regional Implications
Analysts warn that an election lacking serious competition risks undermining investor confidence and reigniting social tensions. Côte d’Ivoire’s history of electoral violence— especially in 2010–11 and 2020—looms large as a cautionary point (theafricareport.com, Wikipédia, AP News).
Even with a stable macroeconomic record under Ouattara, most voters outside Abidjan remain unconvinced their prospects are improving. The opposition fears that a charade of democracy may provoke unrest among young Ivorians increasingly demanding change (Financial Times).
While Laurent Gbagbo, Guillaume Soro and Tidjane Thiam remain potent symbols of resistance, Alassane Ouattara’s fourth‑term candidacy appears all but assured unless there’s a dramatic legal or political reversal. With major opponents sidelined, institutional barriers in place, and civil space constrained, the electoral system now heavily favours the incumbent—raising serious concerns over the future health of democracy in Côte d’Ivoire.
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